Al Gore’s Talk at AAAS 2009

I had the privilege to see Al Gore give an update on “Inconvenient Truth” as a keynote talk at the 2009 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

This was very motivating talk as you might expect from someone of his stature and was targeted at scientists to help him communicate the urgency of action about global warming. This was a very receptive audience as some of the attendees were part of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the theme of this year’s meeting is “Our Planet and It’s Life – Origins and Futures.”

Mr. Gore showed some evidence of recent changes in polar sea ice that have been documented since his 2006 movie. This was an animation over the last 30 years of the advance and retreat of permanent and seasonal ice that hints at the possibility of an ice free arctic in perhaps 10 years. A related talk on Friday discussed the history of polar exploration and pointed out that in 2007, for virtually the first time, the fabled Northwest Passage was free of ice and navigable. This contrasts with the many years of arduous expeditioning that has been fodder for so many heroic arctic tales. This year it was accessible to pleasure boats for virtually the first time.

Mr. Gore showed a bar chart of “natural disasters” versus time – things like wildfires, strong hurricanes, floods and indicated that instances of these disasters have increased dramatically over the last 30 years. He then went on to show on-the-ground pictures of devastation visited by some recent disasters in the news; the floods in the upper Midwest this past summer and even the wildfires in Australia that were still raging this past week while we were in Chicago.

The connection between the disaster statistics, the pictures and global warming was left as an excercise for the audience. The talk was meant as illustration of the strong points that the IPCC has already made in its report and the scientific evidence supporting the talk is to found there. It was quite obvious that the overwhelming majority of the AAAS audience has accepted this evidence as strong indication of anthrogenic causes of global warming.

I personally feel that this is the case, that the majority of evidence supports this conclusion. As another speaker said during the course of the weekend: Incontrovertible evidence for anthrogenic causes of global warming will not arrive for years, perhaps too late for us to take action if we wait to be certain. This changes the question from scientific certainty to that of managing risk. When asked what the chances of catastrophic change in ten years he replied maybe 10%. The questioner scoffed, but quieted when asked if he would eat that great steak tonight if he knew that the chances of it harboring fatal salmonella were about 10%.

Ribbon of Asphalt

smooth road, winter evening, long shadows, carbon bike

There’s not much that’s better than a ride in the high desert at sunset.

Reproducible Research

This is the cover of the  January/February issue of Computing in Science and Engineering (CiSE)  (http://cise.aip.org). Irreproducible research has been a joke for many years and has even inspired humor magazines (http://www.jir.com/), but there is a very serious point to this issue. Science is founded upon the ability to independently repeat and verify work. This has become much more difficult as our tools have increased in complexity and cost … and as the volume of data that we process has increased. However, scientific computing has lagged behind even experiment and theory in its reproducibility. I highly recommend that you read this issue.

Standard Disclaimer: I am on the editorial board of this journal.

Metagenomics – What’s that?

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11902

From the name it has something to do with the genome … or genetics. It’s a new, coined word that refers to the analysis of the genetics of many organisms together at the same time. So what is this? And why would I care?

About 2-1/2 years ago I discovered that genetics is cool … duh! Well, better late than never. In spite of love of computing it had never sunk in to me that the genome of any plant or animal is a program running inside a computer. And the computer is the living organism.

Why would I care about microbial communities? Except for viruses they are the most abundant life on Earth and have an overwhelming effect on our environment and our lives. Consider that about half the carbon dioxide on Earth is processed through microbes that live in the oceans. Then consider that the most modern climate models of ocean life include just five organisms. This is despite recent findings that point to thousands of species, which do many different things and presumably influence our climate.

Since most of these organisms physically look alike how would you ever tell them apart? … or determine what they do? This is now being done through their DNA. There is a revolution going on out there in analyzing DNA that is the equivalent of the twentieth century computer revolution. The new DNA sequencing technologies are producing data faster and cheaper each year and are overwhelming the computers and programs that can process it. There is even talk of each of us having our complete DNA sequence available as part of our medical record for a couple hundred dollars! But this does no one any good if we can’t read and understand the program … remember? DNA is the program of life. What does it say? How does it make the computing machinery of microbes live? And then what do those microbes do to the environment?

Complete DNA sequences of thousands of organisms are piling up in databases because of these new DNA sequencing machines. Most of this remains unanalyzed for several reasons. We don’t yet know the right biological questions to ask. We don’t have all the clever programs that would actually ask these questions of the computer. And there is now so much data that many questions totally overwhelm even existing supercomputers.

Sounds bad, huh? An opportunity missed? Absolutely not! This is a special time in science history … a convergence of events that bodes great opportunity for those who dare to jump on it. High performance computing expertise abounds from the twentieth century developments in the “hard” sciences and engineering. The revolution in DNA sequencing is offering a new opportunity to apply this expertise. And it’s in an field that is of such importance to society.

This is really exciting and I’m having a great time stepping across this boundary … working with sequences of DNA to sort out questions of who those microbes are and what do they do. Metagenomics.

Training Begins Again

Winter is not exactly prime riding season in northern New Mexico, but I still look forward to every ride in spite of the cold. Riding is an integral part of my life and I try to fit it into the schedule several times a week. Why? I just really like to ride — period, but it keeps me fit and I often get my best ideas while droning along in training mode.

There’s rhythm to every year that waxes and wanes. The training and resulting fitness is oriented around the Southwest ride and race schedule, usually starting with the Lobo Classic Time Trial in February and finishing with the Tour de Tucson in November. December and the Holidays are usually slacker time, but New Years always brings the start of base training, Long Slow Distance (LSD) building for the higher intensity rides later in the year.

Last year ended with some recreational rides in Big Bend Texas while enjoying the warm weather in the south. But now it’s cold and snowy here in Santa Fe and time to start the more serious work again. Bundled up in the Assos gear I have two rides done for this year and look forward to a couple of LSD rides this weekend. The warm weather will be back soon, just like every year.

The Border Country

Annette and I like to spend the holidays in warmer climates and have driven to the Big Bend country the last few years to camp and ride bicycles. We just returned from another trip along the Rio Grande camping on the river and up in the mesa lands of Big Bend Ranch. Some of the camping was very isolated along the Chispa Road north of Candelaria, Texas and in the backcountry of the Ranch State Park. We spent a couple of nights at Rio Grande Village across the border from Boquillas, Coahuila including New Year’s eve. It’s unfortunate that the border is now closed to casual traffic and all crossings must be either at Presidio/Ojinaga or Del Rio/Ciudad Acuna. Even though we were no more than a mile from Boquillas we couldn’t cross and missed what sounded like a great party over there.

There is lots of good bicycle riding in that country and the weather cooperates at this time of year. I rode trails in the Ranch State park on the mountain bike and the paved roads in the national park on the cross bike. Great ride tip: Rio Grande Village to Chisos Mountain Lodge and back, 60 miles, 5000 feet of climbing.

I really like this border country. It’s the haunts of the characters of Cormac McCarthy; No Country for Old Men to the East – All the Pretty Horses and Cities of the Plain to the West.